There’s a common quarterback thought among most so-called fantasy football experts. It’s some variation of….
Hold off on drafting a quarterback!
Don’t take a quarterback too high!
Load up on WRs and RBs, then get your QB!
Why take a QB early when there are so many who put up decent numbers?
There’s some validity in that thinking, but the key word there is “some.” Think about this — when’s the last time the person who won your league had a mediocre quarterback? Even an above average quarterback?
Take your time, we’ll wait.
Can you win a fantasy title without Patrick Mahomes? Well, sure you can. You can always bet on getting a QB later in the draft, with the hope that he puts up very solid numbers, and your teams wins because of talent at other spots. But it’s a gamble in our opinion, and often times blows up on you.
Our QB thought process – If you get the chance to draft a premier QB, by all means, do it. Lock up the big-time QB, then spend the rest of your draft finding the running backs and wide receivers.
Now that said, there’s not a big bunch of guys who fit the criteria of sure-fire, without a doubt, difference-making, fantasy quarterback. That’s why we feel that if you can get one of the few, you do it — either in the first or second round.
1st round picks – Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson.
2nd round picks – Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Drew Brees and perhaps Kyler Murray.
These are the six men we have in the top two tiers of our Quarterback rankings. Don’t overthink it. Draft them, solidify your QB spot, don’t think about it again, and move along to other positions.
If this strategy doesn’t work out for you on draft day, or you think the strategy is pathetic and that we’re completely full of bologna (among other things), it’s ok. There are still solid QB options available in Tier 3 of our rankings – Rodgers, Watson, Ryan, Stafford and Brady. All productive pros. You pretty much know what you’re going to get with this crew. However…
If you’re looking for a guy who could go bonkers this season, draft Matthew Stafford. He missed half of 2019. But in his 8 games, he threw for 19 touchdowns, and 2,499 yards. Can you double those numbers? If so, congrats. You know that if Stafford could have doubled the numbers on the field, he would have led the NFL in touchdown passes, and would have been second in passing yardage. He’s surrounded by good skill position talent in Detroit. If he’s healthy – and before 2019, he hadn’t missed a game in eight seasons – he’s the quarterback we’d feel most comfortable with later in a draft, mainly because of the potential upside.
Another QB we like better than most – Kirk Cousins. His 26 touchdown passes in 2019 tied him for 6th most in the NFL. He’s averaged 28 TD passes a season over the past three — tied with Tom Brady and Philip Rivers for second most, only behind Russell Wilson’s average of 33. Cousins has thrown at least 25 TDs in each of the last five seasons. He’s consistently productive, and doesn’t get much credit for it. He’s a QB who could make you look like you know what you’re doing. What a concept.
Draft the premier QBs. Draft highly thought of QBs with a history of productivity. Don’t do either, and you’re putting unnecessary worry into your fantasy season.